Hi all, I fixed some problems with my power ratings and the lines are looking pretty tight now. These lines reflect injuries and weather, as well.
My program---Actual Line (Pinnacle, as of today)
Bills 17 --------- -3
Cardinals 14 ---------- 34
Forecast of 20 mph winds makes the under a possible play here with 3 points of value.
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Cowboys 23 ----------- -3
Lions 20 ---------- 41
The value has been sucked out of the over bet, though I got it Sunday night at 39.
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Texans 23 ------------ -1
Jaguars 22 ------------ 42
My program has the side right on the line, but further analysis would say that Carr and Co. haven't faced a D. like the Jags yet, and with the Jags continued improvement in the O. area they could easily win this game by a TD+. The Jags are coming off of b2b wins against the Chiefs and Colts. Momentum or letdown? I'll go with momentum and override my computer's close call by saying the Jags win easily.
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Colts 27 ------------ -1
Chiefs 24 ------------ 57
The total looks to have stabilized at 57 after opening at 58.5 (which I got a piece of the under at). Couldn't bet against the Chiefs after last week, dare I say, lol.
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Vikings 26 ----------- -6.5
Giants 21 ------------ 48
Not much to play here, an under if anything.
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Bengals 21 ------------ 3
Titans 20 ------------ 40.5
Boy, the Titans have been bad barring their one thrashing of a banged up Packer defense. I've made some good money betting against them, including 1st and 3rd Quarter bets on their opponents when the Titans have been favored. Hmm...perhaps I'll play Cincy 1st and 3rd Q. this week.
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Redskins 22 ------------ 1.5 (opened at 3)
Packers 20 ------------ 40.5
The side has lost much of it's value, but the Redskins were a pretty good play at +3 (got it Sunday night, but then again, you don't need me to remind you of the importance of attacking the lines early, do you? For example -- last week the Broncos opened at -4.5. Yes, they lost outright, but it's better to get your money in at -4.5 then -6.5 if you're going to play the side anyway.)
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Eagles 24 ---------- -7.5
Ravens 14 ----------- 38
Perfect tease setup on the Eagles.
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Broncos 22 ----------- -7
Falcons 15 ------------ 39
Cold w/ 40% chance of snow makes the under a decent play. Vick might need some mentholatum rub after this one. In spite of my program's even line, a tease on the Broncos with Vick being out of his element seems iike a good play here.
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Seahawks 22 ---------- -8
Panthers 17 ---------- 39
Flounder fest with both teams 0-3 in their last 3. Even without running backs I'll take Car. on the 14.5 tease.
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Patriots 22 ----------- -3
Steelers 19 ----------- 42
A forecast of moderate winds could put this one under, though it would have been nicer with the opening line of 43.5.
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Chargers 26 ---------- -6
Raiders 19 ---------- 46
The Chargers have paid for a lot of 4$ lattes in the last month, and the linesmakers, with or without the aid of caffeine, have woken up in regards to the Chargers a little bit. LT for MVP! A tease on the Chargers to win seems appropriate (btw I don't play my teasers at Pinnacle, I play them at Millenium or Hollywood where you lay an even 10-10 for 6 pt. 2-teamers, as opposed to Pinny's 11-10.)
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Bears 20 ---------- -1.5
49ers 18 --------- 35.5 (opened at 35)
Should be an entertaining high school game. 49ers injuries could give Bears just enough success to win this game. Moderate and unwindy forecast makes the over a good play (35 last Sunday night).
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Jets 23 ----------- -6.5
Dolphins 14 ----------- 35
Ideal tease play on the Jets
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Top plays for week #8
(apologies, but I'm posting them with the lines I bought them at, seems fair, does it not?)
Redskins +3
Colts/Chiefs Under 58.5
Lions/Cowboys Over 39
Secondary Plays
Bills/Cards Under 34
49ers/Bears Over 35
Bengals +3
Jaguars +1 (just to see who's smarter -- me, or my computer)
Best Teasers
Phi. -1.5/Jets -.5
Wash. +10/Bengals +10
Car. +14.5/Den. -1
SD PK w/ any above.
Good luck all and have a great week!
My program---Actual Line (Pinnacle, as of today)
Bills 17 --------- -3
Cardinals 14 ---------- 34
Forecast of 20 mph winds makes the under a possible play here with 3 points of value.
-----
Cowboys 23 ----------- -3
Lions 20 ---------- 41
The value has been sucked out of the over bet, though I got it Sunday night at 39.
-----
Texans 23 ------------ -1
Jaguars 22 ------------ 42
My program has the side right on the line, but further analysis would say that Carr and Co. haven't faced a D. like the Jags yet, and with the Jags continued improvement in the O. area they could easily win this game by a TD+. The Jags are coming off of b2b wins against the Chiefs and Colts. Momentum or letdown? I'll go with momentum and override my computer's close call by saying the Jags win easily.
-----
Colts 27 ------------ -1
Chiefs 24 ------------ 57
The total looks to have stabilized at 57 after opening at 58.5 (which I got a piece of the under at). Couldn't bet against the Chiefs after last week, dare I say, lol.
------
Vikings 26 ----------- -6.5
Giants 21 ------------ 48
Not much to play here, an under if anything.
-----
Bengals 21 ------------ 3
Titans 20 ------------ 40.5
Boy, the Titans have been bad barring their one thrashing of a banged up Packer defense. I've made some good money betting against them, including 1st and 3rd Quarter bets on their opponents when the Titans have been favored. Hmm...perhaps I'll play Cincy 1st and 3rd Q. this week.
-----
Redskins 22 ------------ 1.5 (opened at 3)
Packers 20 ------------ 40.5
The side has lost much of it's value, but the Redskins were a pretty good play at +3 (got it Sunday night, but then again, you don't need me to remind you of the importance of attacking the lines early, do you? For example -- last week the Broncos opened at -4.5. Yes, they lost outright, but it's better to get your money in at -4.5 then -6.5 if you're going to play the side anyway.)
-----
Eagles 24 ---------- -7.5
Ravens 14 ----------- 38
Perfect tease setup on the Eagles.
-----
Broncos 22 ----------- -7
Falcons 15 ------------ 39
Cold w/ 40% chance of snow makes the under a decent play. Vick might need some mentholatum rub after this one. In spite of my program's even line, a tease on the Broncos with Vick being out of his element seems iike a good play here.
-----
Seahawks 22 ---------- -8
Panthers 17 ---------- 39
Flounder fest with both teams 0-3 in their last 3. Even without running backs I'll take Car. on the 14.5 tease.
-----
Patriots 22 ----------- -3
Steelers 19 ----------- 42
A forecast of moderate winds could put this one under, though it would have been nicer with the opening line of 43.5.
-----
Chargers 26 ---------- -6
Raiders 19 ---------- 46
The Chargers have paid for a lot of 4$ lattes in the last month, and the linesmakers, with or without the aid of caffeine, have woken up in regards to the Chargers a little bit. LT for MVP! A tease on the Chargers to win seems appropriate (btw I don't play my teasers at Pinnacle, I play them at Millenium or Hollywood where you lay an even 10-10 for 6 pt. 2-teamers, as opposed to Pinny's 11-10.)
-----
Bears 20 ---------- -1.5
49ers 18 --------- 35.5 (opened at 35)
Should be an entertaining high school game. 49ers injuries could give Bears just enough success to win this game. Moderate and unwindy forecast makes the over a good play (35 last Sunday night).
-----
Jets 23 ----------- -6.5
Dolphins 14 ----------- 35
Ideal tease play on the Jets
-----
Top plays for week #8
(apologies, but I'm posting them with the lines I bought them at, seems fair, does it not?)
Redskins +3
Colts/Chiefs Under 58.5
Lions/Cowboys Over 39
Secondary Plays
Bills/Cards Under 34
49ers/Bears Over 35
Bengals +3
Jaguars +1 (just to see who's smarter -- me, or my computer)
Best Teasers
Phi. -1.5/Jets -.5
Wash. +10/Bengals +10
Car. +14.5/Den. -1
SD PK w/ any above.
Good luck all and have a great week!
